While Salt Lake City housing is flat, and we have too much inventory, prices went up in the last half of the year!
But when your Salt Lake County property notice arrives in the mail this week, you'll probably find that your home's value has gone up - and maybe your taxes, too.
The county is sending valuation notices to hundreds of thousands of households this week. And they show a 3 percent bump in the average home price.
That's a screeching slowdown from last year's 22.3 percent surge and the 14 percent spurt in 2006. Even so, the latest numbers appear more in line with annual increases during the past decade.
They still seem too rosy for Jim Bringhurst, immediate past president of the Utah Association of Realtors and broker for the Bringhurst Group.
"I'm a little surprised that they are saying there is 3 percent increase," he said. "Overall, I think prices have stayed relatively flat."
Salt Lake County Assessor Lee Gardner insists that his figures follow the valley's buying and selling trends.
"We reflect what is happening in the market," he said, pointing to real estate data showing the county's average home price rose to $268,036 from $255,823.
The county reports its highest gains in the upper-scale neighborhoods along the east bench, while southwestern suburbs such as South Jordan, Herriman
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and Riverton suffered a 1.3 percent dip in property values.
The lingering question: Will higher home values mean higher taxes? The answer: Maybe.
Because of Utah's truth-in-taxation laws - which limit how much money governments can collect on existing properties without raising rates - homeowners will see their county bills bounce only if their properties appreciate faster than the valleywide average.
Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon says homeowners can be assured of one thing: He won't pitch a property-tax boost this year to balance the county's financially strapped budget.
"I've learned that you start with frugality before you spend money on things that you want."
But it's going to be tough for the Democratic mayor, who faces re-election this fall, and the Republican-led County Council. County financial gurus forecast a $5.3 million shortfall in sales-tax revenues.
Corroon, who says cash reserves will make up much of the difference, has ordered a hiring freeze and urged departments to flatten their budgets.
Yet even without a tax hike, the numbers undoubtedly will irk thousands of property owners. Last year, the county heard 6,500 appeals.
"If the expectation of the public is that values have tanked, then they will look at it as sticker shock," Gardner said. "But if people are attuned to what is happening in the market . . . then they will look at it and say, 'Yeah, I think things are fine.' "
Salt Lake County has heard an average of 6,700 appeals a year since 2000. That represents about 2 percent of the county's total property owners.
Economist James Gander has found the battle worth waging. He's won lower tax bills before and continues to challenge his valuation for 2007.
While Gander has yet to see this year's property notice, he doubts that the county's housing stock really has appreciated as much as the assessor says it has.
"Even 3 percent sounds too high," he said.
So what about the future of the county's real estate market? It's creeping upward, according to the assessor's records. Since valuations were set in January, the average home price has jumped 3.7 percent - now reaching $278,042.
As for Bringhurst, he says his Sugar House real estate group is thriving. The housing market certainly has slowed, but he believes the Beehive State will escape the hard hits experienced elsewhere.
"It's busy for us."
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